Nam's biggest wrong assumption: that startups win by relentless execution and shipping faster than incumbents. With tools like coding assistants, incumbents now ship fast too — "everyone ships fast these days" — so distribution matters more and actually favors incumbents who already have the relationships.
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The assumption Nam had that turned out wrong was that startups win against incumbents via relentless execution and distribution. But with tools like cloud code and coding assistants, incumbents also ship a lot faster now, so distribution matters more — and it favors incumbents who already have existing relationships. His conclusion on long-term moats: "it can't just be like oh okay we ship faster than everyone. Like everyone ships fast these days." The real question is how much deeper you can dig into the pain, and how much harder those pains are to solve.